Fuel, shipping capacity, surcharges and currency move in the market months before they reach an invoice. sirius measures that pressure every week, from Friday's market data, across the ten corridors most of the world's freight moves through, and tells you what to do about it.
Simulation · Strait of Hormuz disruption
Close one strait and the cost of it arrives somewhere that has never shipped through it.
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Only part of a freight bill moves with the market. The rest is a rate you agreed months ago. sirius tracks the part that moves, and how long it takes to arrive.
Fuel jumps, a chokepoint closes, carriers pull capacity, a currency slides. It happens in public, and it happens first.
Nothing changes on your bill yet. How long you wait depends on how you buy: spot in about thirty days, an annual contract in ninety.
By the time it shows up, the market event is two to three months old and the budget conversation has already happened.
What a reading is not
A reading of 134 does not mean your freight bill is up 34 percent. Your base rate is contractually fixed. Only the variable part moves, and depending on how the freight travels that is between 25 and 70 percent of the bill.
What a reading is
January 2026 sits at 100. A lane at 208 means the inputs to that corridor have roughly doubled since then. It tells you what is coming, and roughly when.
Every reading is built from the same four pressures, measured separately so a lane can say which one is carrying it. Fuel and capacity behave differently from surcharges and currency, and a carrier conversation goes differently depending on which is moving.
01Week 42The readings from this week
Two lanes rose this week. Eight were flat. January 2026 = 100.
Last week 340.6Carried by surchargesOn the bill 62% in 1 month, 86% by 2, 98% by 3
Last week 311.6Carried by capacityOn the bill 62% in 1 month, 85% by 2, 98% by 3
Last week 254.9Carried by capacityOn the bill 46% in 1 month, 78% by 2, 94% by 3
Last week 230.1Carried by capacityOn the bill 40% in 1 month, 74% by 2, 93% by 3
Last week 224.6Carried by capacityOn the bill 46% in 1 month, 78% by 2, 94% by 3
Last week 215.7Carried by capacityOn the bill 44% in 1 month, 76% by 2, 94% by 3
Last week 193.6Carried by capacityOn the bill 44% in 1 month, 76% by 2, 94% by 3
Last week 200.1Carried by capacityOn the bill 44% in 1 month, 76% by 2, 94% by 3
Last week 166.1Carried by fuelOn the bill 70% in 1 month, 90% by 2, 100% by 3
Last week 119.9Carried by fuelOn the bill 70% in 1 month, 90% by 2, 100% by 3
Read off the ten readings above, and rewritten every week from Friday's market data. Nothing here is written in advance.
Under most pressure
Middle East → Far East is the heaviest lane on the board at 340.5, and surcharges is what is carrying it.
Moved most this week
Europe ↔ North America rose 4.8 percent against last week, the largest move on the board.
Already on its way
On the heaviest lane, 62 percent of this pressure has reached spot rates, 86 percent short term contracts and 98 percent annual ones. The rest is still in transit to your invoice.
02Week 42The report for this week
The board above is what the market did this week. The report is what to do about it: where costs are heading over the next four weeks, which lanes are worth moving on, and the same week rewritten for the job of the person reading it.
Inside the sirius report
One email address. A new reading every week, in your inbox by Monday morning, Singapore time.
Written for the question each role arrives with
The readings above are public and stay public. What an email address buys is delivery: a new reading every week, taken from Friday's market data, in your inbox by Monday morning, Singapore time, with the brief and what changed.
Want this on your own lanes and transport spend? Talk to us.
Match the freight you move to one of the ten lanes. Take the reading and the weekly change.
The report gives each lane a 4-week forecast range: where pressure is likely to sit, one to four weeks out.
The readingSpot rates in about 30 days, a 6 to 12 month contract in 60, an annual contract in 90.
When it landsLock, hold, switch mode or wait. The reading is what the market supports, in writing.
Past crisesFreight costs go up faster than they come down, and they reach your invoice long after the market has moved. Those two facts are why a weekly reading is worth having at all.
A shock takes weeks to arrive and months to clear. The buyer who locks on the way up pays for the whole descent.
How you buy decides when you feel it. The same market week lands on three different invoices, weeks apart.
sirius is what the market is doing. freya knows what you actually pay. Together, they tell you what your next invoice will cost.
Every number on this page is built from a published method. These are the papers behind it, in reading order.
The index, in one sentence
sirius is TetriXX AI's weekly freight cost pressure index: 300+ market signals across 10 global trade lanes, combined into one reading per lane across fuel, capacity, surcharges and currency, with a new reading every week taken from Friday's market data.
Earlier material calls the same index the freya Cost Pressure Index (FCPI).
A sirius reading of 118 means the cost pressure inputs on a lane are running 18% above the January 2026 baseline, which is not the same as a freight bill 18% higher. This article explains what that number means in practice, what drives it, and how to act on it.
By the time your CFO sees a freight cost spike on the P&L, the market event that caused it is already 30-90 days old. sirius shows you what is coming - before it arrives in your invoices.
How you buy your freight decides when a market move reaches your bill: about 30 days at spot, 60 on a 6 to 12 month contract, 90 on an annual one.
When sirius detects a pattern that resembles a past crisis, it surfaces the match with a confidence score and the trajectory from the previous event. Here is what that output looks like in practice - and how the best-matching analog shapes the forward projection scenarios.
October 5, 2026 · Emilie Annweiler · 5 min read
Transport and logistics spend management with AI: why freight spend resists control, what a verified line-level record changes, seeing cost pressure before the invoice, and cost and carbon together.
September 14, 2026 · Arnaud Rastoul · 10 min read
A freight cost outlook is not a forecast. It is a structured view of the pressure signals that will drive your freight costs over the next 1 to 12 months. Here is how to build one that holds up in a board review.
September 14, 2026 · Arnaud Rastoul · 8 min read
Supply chain cost intelligence is the practice of monitoring freight cost pressure signals before they reach your invoices. This guide explains what it is, how it differs from freight market data, and what questions to ask when evaluating tools.
